Light and the Footprint of Conflict
John Agnew at UCLA is leading a research project using time sequenced satellite images of Iraq at night to monitor the areas where lights are on and off and uses these as indicators of conflict and as a means to monitor factional warring movements.
By comparing the amount of light produced at night in different areas of the capital before, during and after the 30,000 extra troops had been deployed, researchers from UCLA were able to track the movements of the warring Sunni and Shiite factions.
The amount of light was assumed to reflect the number of lights switched on in an area. Combining that with a map of neighbourhood boundaries showed that the lights had dimmed much more in the Sunni dominated west and south-western regions of Baghdad.
But this change began before the influx of extra troops. The light levels in four other major cities untouched by the surge remained constant or increased during the period.
Via Subtopia where the post includes excellent maps.
News release: UCLA study of satellite imagery casts doubt on surge’s success in Baghdad
Full Paper: Baghdad nights: evaluating the US military using nighttime light signatures. by John Agnew, Thomas W Gillespie, Jorge Gonzalez, Brian Min (pdf)
